My wife and I are supposed to leave this Saturday from Chicago and drive down the Gulf Shores, AL, which borders the panhandle of Florida in the gulf. We are really debating what to do. We have been looking forward to this trip for months and definitely want to vacation someplace with a beach to sit on to tan and read. Things for Gulf Shores seem to be 50/50 from locals I have talked to. If the hurricane hits it will hit Tuesday-ish is what they are saying. We would arrive on Sunday and plan to stay until Friday. So we have the chance to reschedule, but have been planning on going up until two days ago and have been making all the preps to leave. Do we take the chance? :confused: I think the hardest thing if we cancel will be the mental aspect of prepping to be on vacation and then not going. I can just see it now showing up to work on Monday and being like " I am not supposed to be here "...what a terrible feeling. :(

Does anyone from that area know what the effects of this size hurricane would be? I ask that since Gulf Shores is more on the Gulf and doesnt seem that it would get a direct hit from the hurricane...I of course could be totally wrong as I have never experienced that type of weather phenomenon.

I do not intend to sound whiny as I know that many of you from that area have much more pressing concerns and things to worry about in respect to Frances...when I think about it it makes my situation seem pretty trivial as a matter of fact. I hope you all keep safe and that you dont lose anything valuable when all is said and done.

I think the current forecast track takes it northbound through the Florida peninsula, with the eye travelling more or less directly north/northwest once it makes landfall. This storm is so expansively wide, it's hard to say what effect the Alabama coast would have. The storm is almost 400-miles from one side of the tropical storm force winds to the other side - the feeder bands and squall lines are up to 800 miles in total diameter of the storm. It's probably hit or miss. On the off chance that the eye decided to continue northwesterly, you could be near or in the path of the hurricane, though it would be considerably weakened from pummeling us down here in central Florida.

The decision is yours... I think you'd be alright... but there's always that chance... personally, knowing what I'm about to go through, I'd stay the hell away from anywhere where this storm could turn up - no matter its size or strength after the fact. Hate to pee in you Wheaties... but I wouldn't come within a thousand miles of this thing if I had the choice.

-R

I would keep checking the forecasts. The current forecast path would leave Gulf Shores in the clear. Gulf Shores would be on the West side of the hurricane, which is the weaker side. In fact, if the forecast track verifies, there probably won't be any bad weather there at all.

But there is still some uncertainty, unfortunately. By Saturday it should be a lot more clear whether Gulf Shores will be impacted. Even if it's not clear at that point, you should know by Sunday.

FWIW, right now the chance is low that Gulf Shores will have problems with this storm, so you should expect to be able to enjoy your beach vacation! :D